Tokyo (SCCIJ) – At the SCCIJ August Luncheon 2026, members and guests gathered at the Shangri-La Tokyo for a timely discussion with Mr. Robert B. Moss, General Manager, Asia Pacific at Nikon SLM Solutions and a retired Commander in the United States Navy. Against a rapidly changing geopolitical backdrop, Mr. Moss examined Japan’s evolving defense role in the Asia-Pacific, the technologies transforming modern security, and the policy changes opening a new chapter for Japan’s defense industry. His central question: as Japan strengthens its capabilities and assumes greater regional responsibility, will it emerge primarily as a counterbalance to other powers – or eventually as a regional hegemon?
Mr. Moss, you described Japan as being at a “tipping point.” What is changing?
Mr. Moss: Japan is facing a fundamentally different strategic environment. China’s growing influence, tensions around Taiwan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, developments on the Korean Peninsula, and uncertainty surrounding traditional alliances are reshaping how Japan thinks about security. Japan now faces an important choice: to strengthen its role as a counterbalance, working with partners to preserve regional stability, or potentially emerge as a more dominant regional power. At the same time, greater uncertainty around U.S. policy is reinforcing Japan’s drive toward greater self-reliance.
How is technology changing the way Japan thinks about defense?
Mr. Moss: One of the biggest changes is the debate between what we call “exquisite” and “attritable” systems. Traditionally, defense procurement has focused on highly sophisticated and expensive platforms. But recent conflicts have demonstrated what relatively inexpensive drones and unmanned systems can achieve. If an inexpensive drone requires a missile costing vastly more to intercept it, the economics of defense become difficult to sustain. This debate will influence how defense budgets around the world are allocated over the next 20 or 25 years.
At the same time, modern defense is increasingly about international co-development. Programs such as the F-35 and the Global Combat Air Programme involving Japan, the United Kingdom and Italy illustrate a move toward countries jointly developing technology, sharing expertise and creating interconnected supply chains. Space, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and unmanned systems are becoming equally important. Defense is no longer simply about ships, aircraft and ground forces—it increasingly depends on information, communications, sensors, data and the ability to operate across multiple domains.
What has changed in Japan’s defense policy?
Mr. Moss: The changes are substantial. Japan’s 2022 security and defense strategies marked a major shift, introducing counter-strike capabilities, stronger collective security with allies, and significantly higher defense spending. The focus is now on turning these policies into operational capabilities, from integrated command structures to autonomous and hybrid warfare. Japan is also easing longstanding restrictions on defense equipment transfers and exports, enabling deeper international cooperation in the development, production and sharing of defense technologies.
Does Japan already play a broader leadership role in Asia-Pacific?
Mr. Moss: Absolutely. Japan’s regional influence goes far beyond defense. Through its relationships with ASEAN countries, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Australia, India and the United States, and major infrastructure and technology projects throughout Asia, Japan has developed an important role in supporting regional connectivity and maintaining open trade routes.
Japan is fundamentally a maritime trading nation. It has a strong interest in ensuring that the global commons remain open and accessible, and its partnerships across Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific increasingly contribute to that objective. That leadership is also visible through infrastructure and technology cooperation, from transportation projects to industrial partnerships across India, Southeast Asia and Taiwan.
What does this transformation mean for foreign companies?
Mr. Moss: There is significant opportunity, particularly in areas where Japan wants to strengthen its capabilities. Among the most promising areas are unmanned systems, advanced sensors and optics, cybersecurity, and C4ISR and intelligence data platforms. Major Japanese defense manufacturers have secured substantial long-term programs, but in several areas they need international partners with technologies and expertise that are not yet sufficiently available domestically.
However, entering this market is not simply a question of having good technology. A local presence and strong Japanese partnerships are extremely important. Companies also need to understand procurement rules, transparency requirements and the increasing emphasis on domestic sourcing and production. There is opportunity – but there is also increasing international competition. As more foreign companies recognize Japan’s growing defense budget, the market is becoming increasingly crowded.
And where do you see opportunities for Switzerland?
Mr. Moss: Switzerland has technologies and capabilities that can be relevant to this transformation, but engagement with the Japanese ecosystem is essential. One encouraging development is the expanding dialogue between armasuisse and Japan’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA). That government-to-government relationship can help create an important framework for companies looking at the Japanese market. For Swiss companies, the opportunity therefore goes beyond simply exporting products to Japan. The greater potential may lie in partnerships, technology cooperation and integration into Japan’s evolving industrial ecosystem.
So, counterbalance or hegemon?
Mr. Moss: That is ultimately the question Japan will have to answer. Japan clearly needs to adapt to a more uncertain security environment, and I believe there are strong reasons for it to strengthen its defense capabilities. At the same time, history matters. Some of Japan’s neighbors will inevitably view rearmament differently, and those concerns need to be understood. The challenge is therefore not simply whether Japan becomes stronger, but how it uses that strength – and whether it can translate greater capability into regional stability, cooperation and leadership.
As Japan moves through this inflection point, the decisions taken today will shape not only its own security, but its relationships with Asia, Europe and the wider world for decades to come. Mr. Moss himself stressed the importance of looking at the issue from both perspectives, acknowledging both the rationale for a stronger Japan and the legitimate concerns its rearmament can create among neighboring countries.
About the Speaker
Robert B. Moss is General Manager, Asia Pacific at Nikon SLM Solutions and a strategic advisor to ISIC Japan. Before entering the private sector, he served for 24 years as an officer and pilot in the United States Navy, including three tours in Japan. His subsequent career has included senior roles in the aerospace and defense industry across Asia-Pacific, giving him extensive experience at the intersection of defense, technology, industry and regional security.
